INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 8/11/08 8/18/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 65.19 63.85 -1.34 -8%
Builders’ First 7.22 5.41 5.46 +.05 -24%
BMHC 5.53 1.78 1.55 -.23 -72%
Cent Garden 5.76 5.21 5.56 +.35 -3%
Danaher 87.74 83.33 83.32 -.01 -5%
Fastenal 40.42 51.78 50.98 -.80 +26%
Fortune Brand 72.36 61.19 59.75 -1.44 -17%
General Elec. 37.07 29.95 29.34 -.61 -21%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.07 2.48 +.41 -29%
Home Depot 26.94 27.51 26.87 -.64 -0%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 40.11 39.16 -.95 -16%
Lumber Liq 8.99 13.54 12.30 -1.24 +37%
Lowe’s 22.62 23.81 24.58 +.77 +9%
L-Pacific 13.68 9.78 9.65 -.13 -29%
Masco 21.61 18.14 18.01 -.13 -17%
Makita 41.89 29.70 28.25 -1.45 -33%
Newell Rub 25.88 18.69 18.90 +.21 -27%
Sears Holding 102.05 91.80 90.40 -1.40 -11%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 59.80 58.45 -1.35 +1%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 24.77 25.14 +.37 -33%
Snap-On 48.24 59.73 58.53 -1.20 +21%
Stanley 48.48 48.96 47.33 -1.63 -2%
Target 50.00 51.36 50.00 -1.36 +0%
Tractor Sup 35.94 42.33 42.25 -.08 +18%
Toro 54.44 38.11 36.89 -1.22 -32%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.72 3.69 -.03 -31%
WD-40 37.97 37.85 35.44 -2.41 -7%
Wal-Mart 47.53 58.56 58.80 +.24 +24%
THF Comp. 1063 1004 987 -17 -7%
DJIA 13265 11782 11479 -303 -13%
NASDAQ 2652 2440 2417 -23 -9%
The Dow gained nearly 500 points the week before last. So, to the surprise of no one who has been paying attention to the pessimistic proclivity of the market during 2008, last week it gave back 303 points.
It is interesting to note that while the Dow is now down 13 percent for the year, our industry’s THF Composite is down “only” seven percent. One would think that since we are so closely aligned with the struggling housing industry, we would be suffering the brunt of the punishment.
Part of the reason our industry stocks are not down as much as other industries, in my opinion, is that most of our companies deal in products that add solid, practical value to customers’ lives. — TVG
Home Improvement Retail Sales Down Just 2% from Last Year
8.13.08 Sales of home improvement products through retail stores in the country rose 0.3 percent in July to $28.008 billion from $27.923 billion in June, according to the latest estimates from the Department of Commerce released today. Sales were down 1.0 percent from July 2007 levels.
For the first seven months of 2008 versus the same period in 2007 sales have declined 2.2 percent to $196.976 billion.
Total retail sales of all types of products in the country in July rose 2.6 percent from year-ago levels to $384.6 billion. Year-to-date total retail sales in the country are up 3.3 percent.
The full report from DoC is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 8/4/08 8/11/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 58.54 65.19 +6.65 -6%
Builders’ First 7.22 4.17 5.41 +1.24 -25%
BMHC 5.53 1.54 1.78 +.24 -68%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.61 5.21 +.60 -10%
Danaher 87.74 80.35 83.33 +2.98 -5%
Fastenal 40.42 47.91 51.78 +3.87 +28%
Fortune Brand 72.36 58.31 61.19 +2.88 -15%
General Elec. 37.07 28.17 29.95 +1.78 -19%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 1.76 2.07 +.31 -41%
Home Depot 26.94 23.89 27.51 +3.62 +2%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 36.38 40.11 +3.73 -14%
Lumber Liq 8.99 14.23 13.54 -.69 +51%
Lowe’s 22.62 20.44 23.81 +3.37 +5%
L-Pacific 13.68 8.63 9.78 +1.15 -29%
Masco 21.61 16.53 18.14 +1.61 -16%
Makita 41.89 29.70 29.70 Even -29%
Newell Rub 25.88 16.75 18.69 +1.94 -28%
Sears Holding 102.05 82.78 91.80 +9.02 -10%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 52.71 59.80 +7.09 +3%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 22.13 24.77 +2.64 -34%
Snap-On 48.24 55.94 59.73 +3.79 +24%
Stanley 48.48 44.18 48.96 +4.78 +1%
Target 50.00 45.01 51.36 +6.35 +3%
Tractor Sup 35.94 38.43 42.33 +3.90 +18%
Toro 54.44 33.30 38.11 +4.81 -30%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.76 3.72 -.04 -31%
WD-40 37.97 33.72 37.85 +4.13 -0%
Wal-Mart 47.53 58.43 58.56 +.13 +23%
THF Comp. 1063 922 1004 +82 -6%
DJIA 13265 11284 11782 +498 -11%
NASDAQ 2652 2286 2440 +154 -8%
Last week in this space I somewhat facetiously predicted that Congress being on vacation for the month of August would help the stock market. I must admit I had no idea things would be this good. Maybe the week long Hawaiian vacation of the Obamanation of America Tour helped throw things over the top. We can’t be sure.
The Dow gained nearly 500 points for the week and the THF Composite of home improvement industry stocks gained 82. And during the week, the price of oil continued to retreat simply on the basis of the prospect of America smartly drilling for its own energy resources. Proof that less government is good for the country?
— TVG
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 7/28/08 8/4/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 58.09 58.54 +.45 -16%
Builders’ First 7.22 4.55 4.17 -.38 -42%
BMHC 5.53 2.50 1.54 -.96 -72%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.50 4.61 +.11 -20%
Danaher 87.74 80.60 80.35 -.25 -8%
Fastenal 40.42 46.81 47.91 +1.10 +19%
Fortune Brand 72.36 56.29 58.31 +2.02 -19%
General Elec. 37.07 27.76 28.17 +.41 -24%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 1.86 1.76 -1.10 -50%
Home Depot 26.94 23.13 23.89 +.76 -11%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 35.81 36.38 +.57 -22%
Lumber Liq 8.99 14.38 14.23 -.15 +58%
Lowe’s 22.62 19.65 20.44 +.79 -10%
L-Pacific 13.68 8.96 8.63 -.33 -37%
Masco 21.61 15.31 16.53 +1.22 -24%
Makita 41.89 35.44 29.70 -5.74 -29%
Newell Rub 25.88 16.26 16.75 +.49 -35%
Sears Holding 102.05 75.56 82.78 +7.22 -19%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 52.18 52.71 +.53 -9%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 19.74 22.13 +2.39 -41%
Snap-On 48.24 56.39 55.94 -.45 +16%
Stanley 48.48 44.66 44.18 -.48 -9%
Target 50.00 43.98 45.01 +1.03 -10%
Tractor Sup 35.94 37.45 38.43 +.98 +7%
Toro 54.44 32.98 33.30 +.32 -39%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.78 3.76 -.02 -30%
WD-40 37.97 32.98 33.72 +.74 -11%
Wal-Mart 47.53 56.13- 58.43 +2.30 +23%
THF Comp. 1063 908 922 +14 -13%
DJIA 13265 11131 11284 +153 -15%
NASDAQ 2652 2264 2286 +22 -14%
An up week for the market overall as the THF Composite, Dow and Nasdaq all managed to gain. Eighteen of our industry stocks rose for the week versus 10 decliners.
Now that Congress has departed Washington for its summer recess, we can at least count on their being no fresh news about how terrible things are and how it’s the other party’s fault. That should help matters. Of course, the two presidential candidates still need to drum up support for solutions that they will magically produce for problems, real or imagined, and they will be running all over the country making their case.
Let’s hope the bears all go to the beach for the month.
— TVG
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 7/21/08 7/28/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 56.67 58.09 +1.42 -17%
Builders’ First 7.22 4.69 4.55 -.14 -37%
BMHC 5.53 2.44 2.50 +.06 -55%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.91 4.50 -.41 -22%
Danaher 87.74 81.32 80.60 -.72 -8%
Fastenal 40.42 48.04 46.81 -1.23 +16%
Fortune Brand 72.36 56.48 56.29 -.19 -22%
General Elec. 37.07 27.69 27.76 +.07 -25%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 1.93 1.86 -.07 -47%
Home Depot 26.94 23.12 23.13 +.01 -14%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 36.15 35.81 -.34 -23%
Lumber Liq 8.99 13.90 14.38 +.48 +60%
Lowe’s 22.62 19.75 19.65 -.10 -13%
L-Pacific 13.68 9.55 8.96 -.59 -35%
Masco 21.61 15.76 15.31 -.45 -29%
Makita 41.89 35.71 35.44 -.27 -15%
Newell Rub 25.88 16.36 16.26 -.10 -37%
Sears Holding 102.05 75.99 75.56 -.43 -26%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 50.45 52.18 +1.73 -10%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 19.20 19.74 +.54 -47%
Snap-On 48.24 51.01 56.39 +5.38 +17%
Stanley 48.48 43.44 44.66 +1.22 -8%
Target 50.00 45.66 43.98 -1.68 -12%
Tractor Sup 35.94 30.61 37.45 +6.84 +4%
Toro 54.44 33.15 32.98 -.17 -39%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.54 3.78 +.24 -29%
WD-40 37.97 31.55 32.98 +1.43 -13%
Wal-Mart 47.53 57.31 56.13- -1.18 +18%
THF Comp. 1063 896 908 +12 -15%
DJIA 13265 11467 11131 -336 -16%
NASDAQ 2652 2280 2264 -18 -15%
The overall market retreated last week, once again citing banking concerns. But while the Dow was busy shedding 336 points in value, our own THF Composite managed to gain 12 points for the week.
Tractor Supply Company provided the most powerful shot in the arm, gaining $6.84 per share for the week thanks to a strong second quarter report from the retailer showing a 14 percent increase in sales. Snap-on Inc. also gained heartily, up $5.38 per share after reporting a 28 percent jump in earnings for the second quarter.
Let’s hope more of our industry companies soon join these two in reporting outstanding results.
— TVG
Durable Goods Orders Remain Strong for Manufacturers
7.25.08 New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $1.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $215.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly increase and followed a 0.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up two of the last three months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $212.2 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent May decrease.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine months, increased $7.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $817.6 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.9 percent May increase.
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $332.2 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.5 percent May increase.
The full report from DoC is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 7/14/08 7/21/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 53.37 56.67 +3.30 -19%
Builders’ First 7.22 4.27 4.69 +.42 -35%
BMHC 5.53 2.18 2.44 +.26 -56%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.68 4.91 +.23 -15%
Danaher 87.74 75.34 81.32 +5.98 -7%
Fastenal 40.42 44.65 48.04 +3.39 +19%
Fortune Brand 72.36 53.73 56.48 +2.75 -22%
General Elec. 37.07 27.13 27.69 +.56 -25%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 1.52 1.93 +.39 -45%
Home Depot 26.94 21.52 23.12 +1.60 -14%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 35.02 36.15 +1.13 -22%
Lumber Liq 8.99 13.01 13.90 +.89 +55%
Lowe’s 22.62 18.97 19.75 +.78 -13%
L-Pacific 13.68 8.03 9.55 +1.52 -30%
Masco 21.61 14.21 15.76 +1.55 -27%
Makita 41.89 35.19 35.71 +.52 -15%
Newell Rub 25.88 15.42 16.36 +.94 -37%
Sears Holding 102.05 70.69 75.99 +5.30 -26%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 45.07 50.45 +5.38 -13%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 16.94 19.20 +2.26 -49%
Snap-On 48.24 50.47 51.01 +.54 +6%
Stanley 48.48 42.14 43.44 +1.30 -10%
Target 50.00 43.92 45.66 +1.74 -9%
Tractor Sup 35.94 28.20 30.61 +2.41 -15%
Toro 54.44 31.29 33.15 +1.86 -39%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.60 3.54 -.06 -34%
WD-40 37.97 29.96 31.55 +1.59 -17%
Wal-Mart 47.53 58.31 57.31 +1.00 +21%
THF Comp. 1063 847 896 +49 -16%
DJIA 13265 11055 11467 +412 -14%
NASDAQ 2652 2213 2280 +67 -14%
Remember last week when I advised you to “Let not your heart be troubled”? This is what I was talking about. Or, at least, it was what I was hoping for.
The market rebounded in a big way last week. And although the investors’ vote of confidence was all but ignored by the main purveyors of negative news in the so-called mainstream media, the move was very significant. It signals that, much to the dismay of many socialist leaning, left-tilted journalists and educators, our country is not on the verge of economic disaster. We have been through many slowdowns in the past and we always emerge stronger than ever.
— TVG
Home Improvement Retail Sales Fell 0.9% in June, -3% for Year
7.15.08 Retail sales of home improvement products in the country declined 0.9 percent in June from May to $27.707 billion. Sales were down 2.0 percent from year-ago June levels of $28.139 billion. For the first six months of the year, home improvement industry retail sales are down 3.3 percent from last year to $165.928 billion.
Total retail sales of all types of goods and services in the country increased 0.1 percent in June to $384.2 billion and are up 3.0 percent over year-ago levels.
The full report from DoC is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 7/7/08 7/14/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 56.01 53.37 -2.64 -24%
Builders’ First 7.22 4.53 4.27 -.26 -41%
BMHC 5.53 1.95 2.18 +.23 -61%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.67 4.68 +.01 -19%
Danaher 87.74 76.28 75.34 -.94 -14%
Fastenal 40.42 43.82 44.65 +.83 +10%
Fortune Brand 72.36 54.90 53.73 -1.17 -26%
General Elec. 37.07 27.10 27.13 +.03 -27%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 1.65 1.52 -.13 -57%
Home Depot 26.94 22.32 21.52 -.80 -20%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 36.85 35.02 -1.83 -25%
Lumber Liq 8.99 12.72 13.01 +.29 +45%
Lowe’s 22.62 20.09 18.97 -1.12 -16%
L-Pacific 13.68 8.00 8.03 +.03 -41%
Masco 21.61 14.90 14.21 -.79 -34%
Makita 41.89 35.60 35.19 -.41 -16%
Newell Rub 25.88 16.23 15.42 -.81 -40%
Sears Holding 102.05 74.01 70.69 -3.32 -31%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 47.61 45.07 -2.54 -22%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 17.52 16.94 -.58 -55%
Snap-On 48.24 50.27 50.47 +.20 +5%
Stanley 48.48 44.00 42.14 -1.86 -13%
Target 50.00 47.17 43.92 -3.25 -12%
Tractor Sup 35.94 28.49 28.20 -.29 -22%
Toro 54.44 31.16 31.29 +.13 -43%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.73 3.60 -.13 -33%
WD-40 37.97 26.86 29.96 +.10 -21%
Wal-Mart 47.53 56.91 58.31 +1.40 +18%
THF Comp. 1063 865 847 -18 -20%
DJIA 13265 11232 11055 -177 -17%
NASDAQ 2652 2243 2213 -30 -17%
The good news this week? Ten of our 28 industry stocks gained for the week. Now, the pessimistically inclined among you may hasten to add that 18 of the stocks dropped for the week. Let not your heart be troubled. For ten stocks to gain during a week when major banks were being bailed out and the mimeograph media were turning out stories along the lines of “things may be much worse than even our most grotesquely exaggerated predictions of well-deserved payback time for all things capitalistic and business-oriented,” is indeed a cause for celebration.
But, let’s also be realistic. These are tough economic times. Things will not turn around overnight. But they will turn around.
— TVG
U.S. Exports at All-Time High
7.11.08 The latest report of trade activity, reported today by the Commerce Department, showed that the nation's trade gap decreased to $59.8 billion in May. That is down 1.2 percent from April's trade deficit and is the best showing since March.
The improvement came even as imports, including crude oil, hit new record highs.
Exports of U.S.-made goods and services totaled an all-time high of $157.6 billion in May, up 0.9 percent from April.
The declining value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, especially the euro, is helping to make U.S. exports cheaper and ergo more attractive to foreign buyers.
Imports of goods and services grew to a record $217.3 billion in May, a 0.3 percent increase from the prior month.
The full report from DoC is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 6/30/08 7/7/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 57.51 56.01 -1.50 -20%
Builders’ First 7.22 5.31 4.53 -.78 -37%
BMHC 5.53 1.77 1.95 +.18 -65%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.55 4.67 +.12 -19%
Danaher 87.74 77.30 76.28 -1.02 -13%
Fastenal 40.42 43.16 43.82 +.66 +8%
Fortune Brand 72.36 62.41 54.90 -7.51 -24%
General Elec. 37.07 26.69 27.10 +.41 -27%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 1.81 1.65 +.16 -53%
Home Depot 26.94 23.42 22.32 -1.10 -17%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 37.43 36.85 -.58 -21%
Lumber Liq 8.99 13.00 12.72 -.28 +42%
Lowe’s 22.62 20.75 20.09 -.66 -11%
L-Pacific 13.68 8.49 8.00 -.49 -42%
Masco 21.61 15.73 14.90 -.83 -31%
Makita 41.89 40.96 35.60 -5.36 -15%
Newell Rub 25.88 16.79 16.23 -.56 -37%
Sears Holding 102.05 73.66 74.01 +.35 -27%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 45.93 47.61 +1.68 -18%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 17.57 17.52 -.05 -53%
Snap-On 48.24 52.01 50.27 -1.74 +4%
Stanley 48.48 44.83 44.00 -.83 -9%
Target 50.00 46.49 47.17 +.68 -6%
Tractor Sup 35.94 29.04 28.49 -.55 -21%
Toro 54.44 33.27 31.16 -2.11 -43%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.93 3.73 -.20 -30%
WD-40 37.97 29.25 26.86 -2.39 -29%
Wal-Mart 47.53 56.20 56.91 +.71 +20%
THF Comp. 1063 889 865 -24 -19%
DJIA 13265 11350 11232 -118 -15%
NASDAQ 2652 2293 2243 -50 -15%
With the housing market still struggling, oil prices still through the roof and the mainstream, change-seeking media still enthusiastically running “news” items about the decline of our nation, is anyone really surprised that the stock market continues to trend downward?
The real surprise is that the market has not performed worse than it has.
A trend we should all keep our eyes on over the next few months is housing. The news items to the left indicate hope that a turnaround may be in the works soon. Don’t look for the good news to make the headlines or the lead story of the evening news, but definitely look for it in this publication.
— TVG
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 6/23/08 6/30/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 58.18 57.51 -.67 -17%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.24 5.31 -.93 -26%
BMHC 5.53 2.06 1.77 -.29 -68%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.53 4.55 +.02 -21%
Danaher 87.74 80.08 77.30 -2.78 -12%
Fastenal 40.42 47.91 43.16 -4.75 +7%
Fortune Brand 72.36 63.90 62.41 -1.49 -14%
General Elec. 37.07 27.40 26.69 -.71 -28%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 1.72 1.81 +.09 -48%
Home Depot 26.94 25.06 23.42 -1.64 -13%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 39.39 37.43 -1.96 -15%
Lumber Liq 8.99 14.07 13.00 -1.07 +45%
Lowe’s 22.62 21.76 20.75 -1.01 -8%
L-Pacific 13.68 9.87 8.49 -1.38 -38%
Masco 21.61 16.32 15.73 -.59 -27%
Makita 41.89 37.15 40.96 -3.81 -2%
Newell Rub 25.88 18.03 16.79 -.24 -35%
Sears Holding 102.05 73.65 73.66 +.01 -28%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 50.13 45.93 -4.20 -21%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 16.92 17.57 +.65 -53%
Snap-On 48.24 54.48 52.01 -2.47 +8%
Stanley 48.48 45.49 44.83 -.66 -8%
Target 50.00 48.74 46.49 -2.25 -7%
Tractor Sup 35.94 30.51 29.04 -1.47 -19%
Toro 54.44 35.33 33.27 -2.06 -39%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.96 3.93 -.03 -27%
WD-40 37.97 30.93 29.25 -1.68 -23%
Wal-Mart 47.53 56.64 56.20 -.44 +18%
THF Comp. 1063 923 889 -34 -16%
DJIA 13265 11842 11350 -492 -14%
NASDAQ 2652 2386 2293 -93 -14%
With the Dow dropping nearly 500 points for the week, this one goes down in the books as officially bearish. It also officially ends the first half of the year with the Dow and Nasdaq both down 14 percent and our own THF Composite down 16 percent.
If things continue in the same direction at the same rate, The Dow and Nasdaq will lose 28 percent for the year and our industry stock composite will fall 32 percent in value.
No one knows the future, but we do know the past and can make judgments based on previous trends. And what we know of past stock market downturns is that they always have reversed themselves. Let’s hope it happens soon.
— TVG
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 6/16/08 6/23/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 60.20 58.18 -2.02 -16%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.81 6.24 -.57 -14%
BMHC 5.53 2.54 2.06 -.48 -63%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.64 4.53 -.11 -21%
Danaher 87.74 81.29 80.08 -1.21 -9%
Fastenal 40.42 49.03 47.91 -1.12 +19%
Fortune Brand 72.36 66.19 63.90 -2.29 -12%
General Elec. 37.07 28.07 27.40 -.67 -26%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.10 1.72 -.38 -51%
Home Depot 26.94 27.50 25.06 -2.44 -7%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 39.51 39.39 -.12 -15%
Lumber Liq 8.99 15.11 14.07 -1.04 +57%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.05 21.76 -2.29 -4%
L-Pacific 13.68 10.17 9.87 -.37 -28%
Masco 21.61 17.74 16.32 -1.42 -24%
Makita 41.89 39.74 37.15 -2.59 -11%
Newell Rub 25.88 18.56 18.03 -.53 -30%
Sears Holding 102.05 81.50 73.65 -7.85 -28%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 49.90 50.13 +.23 -14%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 23.92 16.92 -7.00 -48%
Snap-On 48.24 58.30 54.48 -3.82 +13%
Stanley 48.48 47.90 45.49 -2.41 -6%
Target 50.00 53.09 48.74 -4.35 -3%
Tractor Sup 35.94 32.09 30.51 -1.58 -15%
Toro 54.44 36.98 35.33 -1.65 -35%
US Home Sys 5.36 4.01 3.96 -.05 -26%
WD-40 37.97 30.90 30.93 +.03 -19%
Wal-Mart 47.53 59.31 56.64 -2.67 +19%
THF Comp. 1063 972 923 -49 -13%
DJIA 13265 12269 11842 -427 -11%
NASDAQ 2652 2475 2386 -89 -10%
Its getting harder and harder to be an optimist in this market. Twenty-six of the 28 stocks we track on a weekly basis declined during the past week. And 24 of the 28 are down for the year. Only Fastenal, Lumber Liquidators, Snap-On and Wal-Mart are up for the year.
It seems just when you think the press has run out of bad news to print and broadcast, they come up with a new angle on an old story and run with it as if it were the most delightful proof yet that all is lost.
My advice is to keep your wits about you. Things are never as bad as the press says they are, and never as good as we want them to be.
— TVG
North America Remains Favored Region for Manufacturers, Survey Says
6.19.08 “Despite intense global competition, manufacturers consider North America the most desirable region for expansion over the next three years,” according to a new survey released yesterday by Deloitte.
The survey, Made in North America, targeted top-tier executives of manufacturing companies with North American operations. Results showed that these companies have expansion plans for a variety of operations, including sales, service, research and development, and sourcing. While expansion plans are global, North America -- especially the United States -- was cited as the No. 1 likely location in the short term. Most surprisingly, these manufacturers seem to have a renewed emphasis on North America as the home for actual production facilities, hoping to turn around an area that has been lagging.
In terms of the executives' agendas for expansion, the survey found that sales and services topped the list with 76 percent planning to expand sales in the United States, 58 percent in Canada and 67 percent in Mexico. Sourcing of raw materials and parts (50 percent in China, 49 percent in the United States, and 43 percent in Mexico) and production (44 percent in the United States, 37 percent in Mexico and 37 percent in China) rounded out the top three priorities.
The full report is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 6/9/08 6/16/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 61.04 60.20 -.84 -14%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.94 6.81 -.13 -6%
BMHC 5.53 2.42 2.54 +.12 -54%
Cent Garden 5.76 7.54 4.64 -2.90 -19%
Danaher 87.74 79.65 81.29 +1.94 -7%
Fastenal 40.42 48.80 49.03 +.23 +21%
Fortune Brand 72.36 66.13 66.19 +.06 -9%
General Elec. 37.07 30.06 28.07 -1.99 -22%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.24 2.10 -.14 -40%
Home Depot 26.94 26.54 27.50 +.96 +2%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 39.58 39.51 -.07 -15%
Lumber Liq 8.99 13.74 15.11 +1.37 +68%
Lowe’s 22.62 23.23 24.05 +.82 +6%
L-Pacific 13.68 10.60 10.17 -.43 -26%
Masco 21.61 17.21 17.74 +.53 -18%
Makita 41.89 40.39 39.74 -.65 -5%
Newell Rub 25.88 19.28 18.56 -.72 -28%
Sears Holding 102.05 82.74 81.50 -2.24 -20%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 50.05 49.90 -.15 -14%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 25.68 23.92 -1.76 -36%
Snap-On 48.24 59.89 58.30 -1.59 +21%
Stanley 48.48 47.69 47.90 +.21 -1%
Target 50.00 52.45 53.09 +.64 +6%
Tractor Sup 35.94 32.10 32.09 -.01 -11%
Toro 54.44 36.28 36.98 +.70 -32%
US Home Sys 5.36 4.29 4.01 -.28 -25%
WD-40 37.97 33.37 30.90 -2.47 -19%
Wal-Mart 47.53 59.57 59.31 -.26 +25%
THF Comp. 1063 980 972 -8 -9%
DJIA 13265 12280 12269 -11 -8%
NASDAQ 2652 2459 2475 +16 -7%
Another down week on the market. If things hold to form, this week will be an up week. That’s how it has gone this year – up a little, then down a little more.
All is not gloom and doom for the home improvement industry though. Witness the two news items to the left. Home improvement industry retail sales actually increased in May over April and the National Association of Realtors is forecasting a “modest gain” in housing turnover for the second half of the year.
Let’s hope the worst of this economic contraction is over and that happier times loom on the horizon for all of us.
— TVG
Home Improvement Retail Sales Up 2.4% in May
6.12.08 Home improvement retail sales in the country rose 2.4 percent in May to $28.117 billion from $27.449 billion in April, according to the latest Department of Commerce Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report. Sales were down 3.2 percent from May 2007 levels.
For the first five months of the year, home improvement retail sales are down 3.2 percent to $135.239 billion.
Total retail sales of all types of goods and services rose 1.0 percent in May from April to $385.4 billion and were up 2.5 percent from May 2007 levels.
The full report from DoC is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 6/2/08 6/9/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 63.06 61.04 -2.06 -12%
Builders’ First 7.22 7.11 6.94 -.17 -4%
BMHC 5.53 2.49 2.42 -.07 -56%
Cent Garden 5.76 7.55 7.54 -.01 +31%
Danaher 87.74 77.59 79.65 +2.06 -9%
Fastenal 40.42 47.82 48.80 +.98 +21%
Fortune Brand 72.36 68.64 66.13 -2.51 -9%
General Elec. 37.07 30.41 30.06 -.35 -19%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.30 2.24 -.06 -36%
Home Depot 26.94 27.16 26.54 -.62 -1%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 43.40 39.58 -3.82 -15%
Lumber Liq 8.99 15.39 13.74 -1.65 +53%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.06 23.23 -.83 +3%
L-Pacific 13.68 11.63 10.60 -1.03 -23%
Masco 21.61 18.05 17.21 -.84 -20%
Makita 41.89 41.69 40.39 -1.30 -4%
Newell Rub 25.88 19.64 19.28 -.36 -26%
Sears Holding 102.05 83.78 82.74 -1.04 -19%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 55.69 50.05 -5.64 -14%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 27.63 25.68 -1.95 -31%
Snap-On 48.24 61.11 59.89 -1.22 +24%
Stanley 48.48 47.46 47.69 +.23 -2%
Target 50.00 52.82 52.45 -.37 +5%
Tractor Sup 35.94 34.74 32.10 -2.64 -11%
Toro 54.44 37.76 36.28 -1.48 -33%
US Home Sys 5.36 4.40 4.29 -.11 -20%
WD-40 37.97 34.96 33.37 -1.59 -12%
Wal-Mart 47.53 57.20 59.57 +2.37 +25%
THF Comp. 1063 1006 980 -26 -8%
DJIA 13265 12504 12280 -224 -7%
NASDAQ 2652 2492 2459 -33 -7%
A dramatic spike in the price of oil combined with the continuing softness in the housing market sent stocks down last week.
As we approach the midway point of the year, the THF Composite of Home Improvement Industry Stocks is down 8 percent. The broader Dow and Nasdaq are both down 7 percent for the year.
But even in these challenging times, some of our industry stocks are performing exceptionally well. Lumber Liquidators is up 53 percent, Snap-On is up 24 percent, Fastenal is up 21 percent, and the world’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart, is up 25 percent. These are companies Wall Street perceives to be building for the future. — TVG
Ace is the Place, Says J.D. Power Satisfaction Study
6.6.08 For a second consecutive year, Ace Hardware ranks highest in satisfying home improvement retail store customers, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2008 Home Improvement Retail Store Study released last week.
The study, now in its second year, measures customer satisfaction with home improvement retail stores, based on performance in five factors: merchandise; price; sales staff; sales/promotions; and store facility.
“Ace Hardware achieves a score of 791 on a 1,000-point scale and performs particularly well in the sales staff and store facility factors, which are the two most important factors driving overall customer satisfaction. Lowe’s (784) and Menards (779) follow Ace Hardware in the rankings. Lowe’s performs particularly well in merchandise, while Menards performs well in the sales/promotions and price factors,” according to the report.
The study finds that customers spent an average of $2,400 on home improvement during the previous 12 months, an increase of $200 compared with one year ago. In addition, customers spend approximately 72 percent of their total home improvement budget, on average, at their primary home improvement retailer. However, customers who say they are highly satisfied with their primary retailer’s sales staff spend an additional 4 percent of their budget at that retailer.
The full press release is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 5/26/08 6/2/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 63.05 63.06 +.01 -9%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.99 7.11 +.12 -2%
BMHC 5.53 3.00 2.49 -.51 -55%
Cent Garden 5.76 7.21 7.55 +.34 +31%
Danaher 87.74 75.84 77.59 +1.75 -12%
Fastenal 40.42 45.50 47.82 +2.32 +18%
Fortune Brand 72.36 69.02 68.64 -.38 -5%
General Elec. 37.07 30.43 30.41 -.02 -18%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.51 2.30 -.19 -34%
Home Depot 26.94 26.77 27.16 +.39 +1%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 42.77 43.40 +.63 -7%
Lumber Liq 8.99 15.07 15.39 +.32 +71%
Lowe’s 22.62 23.30 24.06 +.76 +6%
L-Pacific 13.68 11.45 11.63 +.18 -15%
Masco 21.61 17.86 18.05 +.19 -16%
Makita 41.89 38.43 41.69 +3.26 -0%
Newell Rub 25.88 19.58 19.64 +.06 -24%
Sears Holding 102.05 87.95 83.78 -4.17 -18%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 56.11 55.69 -.42 -4%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 27.94 27.63 -.31 -26%
Snap-On 48.24 59.57 61.11 +1.54 +27%
Stanley 48.48 48.33 47.46 -.87 -2%
Target 50.00 52.04 52.82 +.78 +6%
Tractor Sup 35.94 32.47 34.74 +2.27 -3%
Toro 54.44 39.41 37.76 -1.65 -31%
US Home Sys 5.36 4.83 4.40 -.43 -18%
WD-40 37.97 34.08 34.96 +.88 -8%
Wal-Mart 47.53 55.75 57.20 +1.45 +20%
THF Comp. 1063 997 1006 +9 -5%
DJIA 13265 12480 12504 +24 -6%
NASDAQ 2652 2445 2492 +47 -6%
Despite Monday’s 135-point drop on the market, the most recent trading week was a positive one. The Dow managed a gain for the week, as did the Nasdaq. And the THF Composite improved 9 points with 18 of our 28 stocks advancing.
Some notable gainers for the week included Fastenal (+2.32), Makita (+3.26) and Tractor Supply (+2.27).
A fascinating comparison to follow is the stock performance of Home Depot and Lowe’s. Wall Street sees very little difference between the two in terms of products offered or potential customers. So what they are investing in is management’s ability to produce shareholder equity. And so far this year, they like Lowe’s.
— TVG
Personal Income Up in April
5.30.08 Personal income increased $20.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income increased $23.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, in April, according to a Bureau of Economic Analysis report released this morning.
The full press release on BEA's Web site can be found here.
New Green Living Network to Feature Home Building and Renovation TV Show
5.28.08 Well-known handyman and TV Host Steve Thomas (This Old House, etc.) will be the star of “RENOVATION NATION,” a new show dedicated to making homes earth-friendly.
“The tricks of the trade for the green home building movement are revealed when Thomas brings viewers into the exciting world of green renovations. In this daily hour-long series, Thomas meets with eco-sensitive homeowners and builders who are making the choice to go green. Thomas shares the secrets of making environmentally responsible transformations by teaching homeowners and viewers alike which materials and designs encourage energy efficiency, while also providing tips on making the process as affordable and simple as possible,” according to a press release
A sneak preview of RENOVATION NATION airs Wednesday, June 4, at 9:30 p.m. EST, when Discovery Home Channel becomes Planet Green. RENOVATION NATION officially premieres Friday, June 6, at 8:00 p.m. EST and can also be seen Mondays through Thursdays at 6:00 p.m. EST beginning June 5.
More information on Planet Green is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 5/19/08 5/26/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 66.84 63.05 -3.79 -9%
Builders’ First 7.22 7.29 6.99 -.30 -3%
BMHC 5.53 3.05 3.00 -.05 -46%
Cent Garden 5.76 6.77 7.21 +.44 +25%
Danaher 87.74 78.61 75.84 -2.77 -14%
Fastenal 40.42 48.81 45.50 -3.31 +13%
Fortune Brand 72.36 71.51 69.02 -2.49 -5%
General Elec. 37.07 32.40 30.43 -1.97 -18%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.66 2.51 -.15 -28%
Home Depot 26.94 28.87 26.77 -2.10 -1%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 45.97 42.77 -3.20 -8%
Lumber Liq 8.99 16.27 15.07 -1.20 +68%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.25 23.30 -.95 +3%
L-Pacific 13.68 11.82 11.45 -.37 -16%
Masco 21.61 19.36 17.86 -1.50 -17%
Makita 41.89 38.57 38.43 -.14 -8%
Newell Rub 25.88 21.10 19.58 -1.52 -24%
Sears Holding 102.05 94.51 87.95 -6.56 -14%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 59.60 56.11 -3.49 -3%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 28.51 27.94 -.57 -25%
Snap-On 48.24 60.91 59.57 -1.34 +23%
Stanley 48.48 50.13 48.33 -1.80 -0%
Target 50.00 54.92 52.04 -2.88 +4%
Tractor Sup 35.94 32.97 32.47 -.50 -10%
Toro 54.44 41.51 39.41 -2.10 -28%
US Home Sys 5.36 4.94 4.83 -.11 -10%
WD-40 37.97 33.75 34.08 +.33 -10%
Wal-Mart 47.53 56.40 55.75 -.65 +17%
THF Comp. 1063 1042 997 -45 -6%
DJIA 13265 13028 12480 -548 -6%
NASDAQ 2652 2516 2445 -71 -8%
Last week was a memorable one on the market, but not in a good way. The Dow lost 548 and our own THF Composite shed 45 points for the week. In fact, 27 of our 28 industry stocks declined in value.
For me, the reason our market is struggling was made clear last week as I relocated my home and office. Much of the latter part of last week was spent in home improvement stores and other retail outlets buying all the things people typically need when moving into a new home in a new area. And I won’t be finished with the spending spree for a few more weeks. Existing home sales are down by over one million from last year. We need more home sales. — TVG
U.S. Retail e-Commerce Growth Rate Rebounds in April
5.27.08 ComScore, Inc. last week released retail e-commerce data for April 2008, which showed that the year-over-year growth rate rebounded to 15 percent, following an increase of just 9 percent in March.
The report also showed $32.8 billion in online retail spending for the first quarter of 2008 (including auction fees and autos but excluding event tickets).
The company will present a review of the current trends in e-commerce and search marketing on Friday, May 30, 2008 at 11 a.m. EST. To register for the free webinar, visit:
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/436386894.
Canadian Home Improvement Sales Fell Slightly in March
5.23.08 Sales through Canadian building and outdoor home supply stores declined 0.5 percent in March to C$2.175 billion from C$2.257 billion in February, according to data released by Statistics Canada yesterday. Sales through home centers and hardware stores declined 0.1 percent during the same period to C$1.755 billion.
Compared to March 2007, sales are up 3.3 percent in building stores, and up 4.2 percent in home center and hardware stores.
The full report is here.
AHMA Holds Annual Membership Meeting
5.20.08 The American Hardware Manufacturers Association (AHMA) held its 2008 Annual Membership Meeting on May 14 at the Ivanhoe Club in Ivanhoe, IL.
AHMA President and Chief Executive Officer Timothy S. Farrell provided an association update, which included new and noteworthy initiatives for AHMA – “the launch of AHMA’s Advantage GPO offering significant savings on the purchasing/cost side of the business equation for AHMA members, as well as other representatives of the hardware/home improvement industry, and the addition of the long-standing and well respected industry publication The Hard Fax: Home Improvement Industry News,” according to a press release.
Guest speakers at the annual meeting included Jeff Arlen, Publisher of Home Channel News, Ken Clark, Editor in Chief of Home Channel News, and John Satagaj, AHMA’s Legislative Counsel. The full press release is here.
Home Improvement Retail Sales Up 1.9% in April
5.15.08 Retail sales of home improvement products increased 1.9 percent in April to $27.126 billion from $26.608 billion in March, according to the latest report from the Department of Commerce. Sales were down 2.0 percent from April 2007.
For the first four months of the year, sales have declined 3.5 percent to $100.167 billion from year-ago levels.
Total retail sales of all types of goods and services in the country in April were $378.1 billion, down 0.2 percent from March and up 2.0 percent from April 2007.
The full report from DoC is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 5/5/08 5/12/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 67.38 67.12 -.26 -4%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.80 6.99 +.19 -3%
BMHC 5.53 4.09 3.69 -.40 -33%
Cent Garden 5.76 5.08 6.32 +1.24 +10%
Danaher 87.74 77.18 78.41 +1.23 -11%
Fastenal 40.42 51.11 51.04 -.07 +26%
Fortune Brand 72.36 69.04 69.84 +.80 -3%
General Elec. 37.07 33.18 32.40 -.78 -13%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.60 2.51 -.09 -28%
Home Depot 26.94 29.37 28.64 -.73 +6%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 44.06 43.86 -.20 -6%
Lumber Liq 8.99 12.59 14.94 +2.35 +66%
Lowe’s 22.62 25.45 24.69 -.76 +9%
L-Pacific 13.68 11.31 11.01 -.30 -20%
Masco 21.61 18.87 18.58 -.29 -14%
Makita 41.89 38.97 37.69 -1.28 -10%
Newell Rub 25.88 20.59 20.19 -.40 -22%
Sears Holding 102.05 100.08 94.69 -5.39 -7%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 56.53 57.31 +.78 -1%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 34.04 28.48 -5.56 -24%
Snap-On 48.24 59.86 59.28 -.58 +23%
Stanley 48.48 49.69 49.17 -.52 +1%
Target 50.00 53.19 53.48 +.29 +7%
Tractor Sup 35.94 35.07 33.34 -1.73 -7%
Toro 54.44 40.09 40.44 +.35 -26%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.72 3.66 -.06 -32%
WD-40 37.97 31.24 32.73 +.49 -14%
Wal-Mart 47.53 56.97 58.02 +1.05 +22%
THF Comp. 1063 1038 1029 -9 -3%
DJIA 13265 12970 12876 -94 -3%
NASDAQ 2652 2464 2488 +24 -6%
Sometimes the stock market just makes sense. Companies doing well in the real world of business do well on the market. And companies doing not so well, do not so well.
Witness this week’s THF Composite, where 10 stocks gained and 18 stocks lost. There are good, sound reasons why the gainers gained. Lumber Liquidators gained $2.35 for the week because it continues to exploit a niche and promote itself aggressively both to the market and to consumers. And on the down side, Scotts Miracle-Gro lost $5.56 because of a very unfortunate, and costly, recall concerning EPA labeling rules.
Retail Trade down 0.4% in Euro Area
5.7.08 In March 2008, compared with February 2008, the volume of retail trade fell by 0.4 percent in the euro area, according to the latest report from EuroStat released today. The non-food sector decreased by 0.9 percent.
Among the Member States for which data are available, total retail trade rose in nine and fell in ten. The highest increases were observed in Romania (+16.2%), Slovakia (+10.4%), Lithuania (+9.0%) and Bulgaria (+8.7%), and the largest decreases in Spain (-5.3%), Estonia (-4.9%), Denmark (-4.6%) and Luxembourg (-4.2%).
The full report is here
National Hardware Show Opens in Las Vegas
5.6.08 The National Hardware Show opened this morning at the Las Vegas Convention Center and will run through Thursday, May 8. The show runs simultaneously at the same location with Lawn & Garden World and the Homewares Show.
A total of 3,500 exhibitors are showing products to an expected 30,000 visitors.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 4/28/08 5/5/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 68.66 67.38 -1.28 -3%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.96 6.80 -.16 -6%
BMHC 5.53 4.47 4.09 -.38 -26%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.94 5.08 +.14 -12%
Danaher 87.74 78.06 77.18 -.88 -12%
Fastenal 40.42 50.13 51.11 +.98 +27%
Fortune Brand 72.36 68.56 69.04 +.48 -5%
General Elec. 37.07 33.17 33.18 +.01 -10%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.33 2.60 +.27 -26%
Home Depot 26.94 29.73 29.37 -.46 +9%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 43.81 44.06 +.25 -5%
Lumber Liq 8.99 13.40 12.59 -.81 +40%
Lowe’s 22.62 25.64 25.45 -.19 +13%
L-Pacific 13.68 11.66 11.31 -.35 -17%
Masco 21.61 19.70 18.87 -.83 -13%
Makita 41.89 35.87 38.97 +3.10 -7%
Newell Rub 25.88 20.72 20.59 -.13 -20%
Sears Holding 102.05 101.24 100.08 -1.16 -2%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 55.41 56.53 +1.12 -3%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 33.37 34.04 +.67 -9%
Snap-On 48.24 60.35 59.86 -.49 +24%
Stanley 48.48 49.19 49.69 +.50 +3%
Target 50.00 53.94 53.19 -.75 +6%
Tractor Sup 35.94 36.72 35.07 -1.65 +2%
Toro 54.44 42.81 40.09 -2.72 -26%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.42 3.72 +.30 -31%
WD-40 37.97 31.05 31.24 +.19 -18%
Wal-Mart 47.53 57.35 56.97 -.38 +20%
THF Comp. 1063 1043 1038 -5 -2%
DJIA 13265 12872 12970 +98 -2%
NASDAQ 2652 2424 2464 +40 -7%
The stock market seems to have settled itself over the past few weeks. The dramatic ups and downs we witnessed for months have given way ever so tenuously to a trend indicating something approaching confidence.
The THF Composite of home improvement industry stocks declined in the last week, but only by a very slight five points and it is down just two percent year-to-date. This indicates to me that financial people who make money in the market by predicting the future, not the past, see a brighter future for home improvement than do all the doom and gloom consumer press headline writers. Let’s hope they are right.
— TVG
Housing Affordability Slips
5.1.08 Housing affordability nationwide fell somewhat in March to an index of 130.2 from 135.4 in February, according to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors released today.
The index indicates that a family earning the median income in the country ($60,076) has 130.2 percent of the income necessary to qualify for a standard mortgage at prevailing rates (6.10 percent) to purchase a median priced single-family home ($198,200).
A year ago, the index stood at 113.3.
The full report is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 4/21/08 4/28/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 68.00 68.66 +.66 -1%
Builders’ First 7.22 7.46 6.96 -.50 -4%
BMHC 5.53 4.79 4.47 -.32 -19%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.47 4.94 +.47 -14%
Danaher 87.74 75.50 78.06 +2.56 -11%
Fastenal 40.42 50.11 50.13 +.02 +24%
Fortune Brand 72.36 70.99 68.56 -2.43 -5%
General Elec. 37.07 32.46 33.17 +.71 -11%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.50 2.33 -.17 -33%
Home Depot 26.94 28.98 29.73 +.75 +10%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 45.93 43.81 -2.12 -6%
Lumber Liq 8.99 13.01 13.40 +.39 +49%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.83 25.64 +.81 +13%
L-Pacific 13.68 10.97 11.66 +.69 -15%
Masco 21.61 19.91 19.70 -.21 -9%
Makita 41.89 33.96 35.87 +1.91 -14%
Newell Rub 25.88 22.47 20.72 -1.75 -20%
Sears Holding 102.05 97.48 101.24 +3.76 -1%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 56.25 55.41 -.84 -5%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 35.41 33.37 -2.04 -11%
Snap-On 48.24 55.28 60.35 +5.07 +25%
Stanley 48.48 50.44 49.19 -1.25 +1%
Target 50.00 54.55 53.94 -.61 +8%
Tractor Sup 35.94 36.85 36.72 -.13 +2%
Toro 54.44 40.05 42.81 +2.76 -21%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.44 3.42 -.02 -36%
WD-40 37.97 30.40 31.05 +.65 -18%
Wal-Mart 47.53 56.38 57.35 +.97 +21%
THF Comp. 1063 1033 1043 +10 -2%
DJIA 13265 12825 12872 +47 -3%
NASDAQ 2652 2408 2424 +16 -9%
Lumber Liquidators is the story of the year in home improvement retailing.
Ignoring an economy where all the experts say lumber can’t sell because housing starts are down, home renovations are down and ecological concerns about trees are up, the retailer defies logic and goes public with its stock late last year and launches an expansion program that is paying off big time in increased sales and customer acceptance.
The approach is beautifully simple: offer high quality products at a price below everyone in the market. Sometimes less truly is more. And sometimes, still, capitalism emerges victorious.
— TVG
Home Improvement Industry Connects in Memphis
4.25.08 Attendees at AHMA's Hardlines Technology Forum® departed Memphis, Tennessee much better prepared to “connect” and do business with one another thanks to three and a half days of intense sessions designed to bring manufacturers together with some of their biggest and best retail and wholesale customers to learn “how to” more efficiently do business in today’s eCommerce environment.
The conference featured presentations from leading home improvement retailers and wholesalers such as True Value, Lowe’s, Do it Best and Orgill where information technology and merchandising executives from the buy-side companies provided specific, detailed instructions on how to work within their current data exchange systems to share ordering, shipping and invoicing information. They also provided a look into what new requirements will be coming in the future as technology evolves.
Among the over 40 sessions, the “Seller Forum” again this year provided manufacturers with an opportunity to voice their problems and concerns with some customer data exchange procedures. The top such concerns were presented to the retailers with the intention that solutions will be worked on over the next few months by groups assigned to tackle the task of coming up with mutually satisfactory changes to the systems.
Sponsored by the American Hardware Manufacturers Association (AHMA), the 18th annual Hardlines Technology Forum® also offered conference tracks suited to beginners in the field with sessions such as B2B Basics and Data Sync Basics.
Experienced IT professionals took advantage of the many sessions in the “Leveraging Best Practices in Technology Enablement” track to keep their companies’ systems and practices up to date and in line with customer demands.
But the most talked about and praised sessions of the conference were the new “How To” Do Business in the Hardlines Industry track and the Retail Panel.
“The 2008 AHMA Hardlines Technology Forum® was the first to put an increased emphasis on the business/marketing side of the technology equation in the hopes of attracting more sales and marketing executives to future conferences so that they can learn to work more efficiently with the information technology side of the industry for the betterment of all concerned,” said Timothy S. Farrell, President and CEO of the American Hardware Manufacturers Association.
Even first-time attendees appreciated the “How To Do Business” aspect of the conference. Joshua Prentice, Data Analyst and EDI Coordinator for M-D Building Products, said, “I really enjoyed the How To do business sessions because they gave me a better idea of how to prepare for what is coming so I can make sure our system is ready for whatever is coming.” And Lucy Parker, EDI Coordinator for Eclectic Products, another first-timer to the conference, said, “The thing I liked best is to meet with other EDI coordinators and learn that we all have similar problems. Some of the basic sessions were too basic for me, but I will absolutely come back next year and be sure I get myself into the right tracks.”
John Keller, EDI Coordinator at Fernco, who has been coming to HTF for a number of years, said, “Where else can you get the chance to sit down with execs from companies like Lowe’s and Do it Best and talk about your company?”
Larry Pensinger, Director of E-Business Do it Best Corp., said, “We are very happy to participate in HTF to both learn and to also make it easier for our various constituents to do business with us.”
AHMA’s 2009 Hardlines Technology Forum® will be held April 19 – 22, 2009 at the Loews Philadelphia Hotel in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Hardlines Technology Forum Opens in Memphis
4/21/08 The 18th annual AHMA Hardlines Technology Forum opened this morning in Memphis, Tennessee. Approximately 225 home improvement industry manufacturers, retailers and vendors are meeting at The Peabody Hotel to attend and participate in sessions organized into five different tracks: How to Do Business in the Hardlines Industry, Supporting Collaborative Business Processes, Leveraging Best Practices in Technology Enablement, B2B Basics and Data Sync Basics. The Forum runs today, Monday, April 21 through Thursday, April 24, 2008.
This morning’s sessions kicked-off with a basic presentation on EDI (EDI 101/102) and an overview of the Global Standards Management Process (GSMP).
Rich Freed, Lead EDI Analyst, D&H Distributing presented the overview of the basics of EDI and Mark d’Agostino, Vice President of Global Standards, GSI U.S. led the discussion on how GSMP impacts organizations, how the standards are developed and how companies can become involved.
Home Improvement Spending to Decline 4.8%, Study Says
4.18.08 Falling consumer confidence and a weakening economy are inhibiting remodeling spending according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. The Leading Indicator for Remodeling Activity (LIRA) reports that homeowner spending for home improvement activity will continue to decline, falling by an annual rate of 4.8% through the end of 2008.
“Spending on home improvements continues to be sluggish, as homeowners respond to falling home prices,” notes Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “The fall-off in pending home sales suggests a long and slow recovery.”
“It looks unlikely that we will see any improvement in the remodeling market until 2009,” remarks Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program of the Joint Center. “Currently, the second half of this year is shaping up to be weaker than the first half.”
The full report is here.
“Green” Consumers Willing to Pay More for Products
4.16.08 About half of 1,141 consumers in the U.S. and U.K. surveyed by BuzzBack Market Research say “that the environment is the most important issue, and are willing to make sacrifices such as convenience, comfort or cost savings in order to support the environment.”
But while 72 percent claim to use energy efficient light bulbs and 71 percent say they recycle paper, only six percent say they “only buy products from companies they consider Green.”
The full press release is on the company’s website here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 4/7/08 4/14/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 70.38 66.23 -4.15 -5%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.96 7.00 +.04 -3%
BMHC 5.53 4.91 4.73 -.18 -14%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.25 4.12 -.13 -28%
Danaher 87.74 78.40 73.86 -4.54 -16%
Fastenal 40.42 48.21 48.83 +.62 +21%
Fortune Brand 72.36 73.92 70.72 -3.20 -2%
General Elec. 37.07 37.26 32.15 -5.11 -13%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.67 2.56 -.11 -27%
Home Depot 26.94 28.50 27.91 -.59 +4%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 45.78 43.10 -2.68 -7%
Lumber Liq 8.99 11.10 12.07 +.97 +34%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.21 24.02 -.19 +6%
L-Pacific 13.68 10.87 9.67 -1.20 -29%
Masco 21.61 19.86 18.83 -1.03 -13%
Makita 41.89 33.75 30.74 -3.01 -27%
Newell Rub 25.88 23.72 22.12 -1.60 -15%
Sears Holding 102.05 103.65 101.43 -2.22 -1%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 54.76 53.62 -1.14 -8%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 36.01 33.50 -2.51 -10%
Snap-On 48.24 53.07 51.13 -1.94 +6%
Stanley 48.48 50.34 47.51 -2.83 -2%
Target 50.00 52.77 51.96 -.81 +4%
Tractor Sup 35.94 38.70 36.24 -2.46 +1%
Toro 54.44 41.99 39.75 -2.24 -27%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.45 3.42 -.03 -36%
WD-40 37.97 33.26 30.95 -2.31 -18%
Wal-Mart 47.53 54.23 55.15 +.92 +16%
THF Comp. 1063 1047 1003 -44 -6%
DJIA 13265 12612 12302 -310 -7%
NASDAQ 2652 2365 2276 -89 -14%
Minus 519, plus 232, plus 577, minus 286, plus 349, minus 310 … that is the tally and the tale of the Dow over the past six weeks.
This is a market lacking direction. As soon as investors sense stocks have been discounted to bargain levels and begin to buy, some “expert” explains how things are really much worse than imagined and everyone retreats to defensive positions.
And it does not help matters that this is a presidential election year, so you have candidates with a vested interest in painting a dreary economic picture so that they can present themselves as enlightened saviors.
Total Retail Sales Up 3% for Year, Home Improvement –5%
4.14.08 Total retail sales in the country for the first three months of 2008 are up 2.9 percent from the same period in 2007, according to the Department of Commerce Advance Monthly Retail Sales report released this morning. During that same three-month period, sales through home improvement retail outlets fell 4.8 percent to a total of $72.966 billion.
For the month of March, home improvement retail sales totaled $27.916 billion, down 1.6 percent from $28.372 billion in February.
The full report from DoC is here.
French Retail Study Available
4.11.08 Research and Markets has announced the addition of "Do It Yourself Retailers in France - Portfolio Analysis" to their offerings.
A full description of the report and ordering information is here.
Trade Deficit at $63 Billion
4.10.08 The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total February exports of $151.4 billion and imports of $213.7 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $62.3 billion, up from $59.0 billion in January, revised. February exports were $3.0 billion more than January exports of $148.4 billion. February imports were $6.3 billion more than January imports of $207.3 billion.
The full report is here.
Online Retail Sales to Rise 17%
4.8.08 According to The State of Retailing Online 2008, the 11th annual Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research, Inc. of 125 retailers, “online retail will continue to be a bright spot in the industry with retail sales rising 17 percent this year to $204 billion.” Apparel ($26.6 billion), computers ($23.9 billion), and autos ($19.3 billion) will be the largest three sales categories. The State of Retailing Online 2008: Marketing Report, the first of a three-part series of reports based on the study, was released this morning at Shop.org's Online Marketing Workshop in Scottsdale, AZ.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 3/31/08 4/7/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 66.10 70.38 +4.28 +1%
Builders’ First 7.22 7.26 6.96 -.30 -4%
BMHC 5.53 4.38 4.91 +.53 -11%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.61 4.25 -.36 -26%
Danaher 87.74 76.03 78.40 +2.37 -11%
Fastenal 40.42 45.93 48.21 +2.28 +19%
Fortune Brand 72.36 69.50 73.92 +4.42 +2%
General Elec. 37.07 37.01 37.26 +.25 +1%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.32 2.67 +.35 -24%
Home Depot 26.94 27.97 28.50 +.53 +6%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 44.58 45.78 +1.20 -1%
Lumber Liq 8.99 10.60 11.10 +.50 +23%
Lowe’s 22.62 22.94 24.21 +1.27 +7%
L-Pacific 13.68 9.18 10.87 +1.69 -21%
Masco 21.61 19.83 19.86 +.03 -8%
Makita 41.89 31.36 33.75 +2.39 -19%
Newell Rub 25.88 22.87 23.72 +.85 -8%
Sears Holding 102.05 102.09 103.65 +1.56 +2%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 51.04 54.76 +3.72 -6%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 32.42 36.01 +3.59 -4%
Snap-On 48.24 50.85 53.07 +2.22 +10%
Stanley 48.48 47.62 50.34 +2.72 +4%
Target 50.00 50.68 52.77 +2.09 +6%
Tractor Sup 35.94 39.52 38.70 -.82 +8%
Toro 54.44 41.39 41.99 +.60 -23%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.63 3.45 -.18 -36%
WD-40 37.97 33.25 33.26 +.01 -12%
Wal-Mart 47.53 52.68 54.23 +1.55 +14%
THF Comp. 1063 1008 1047 +39 -1%
DJIA 13265 12263 12612 +349 -5%
NASDAQ 2652 2279 2365 +86 -11%
This was a very good week on the market. The Dow climbed 349 points, the NASDAQ was up 86 points and our own THF Composite gained 39 for the period. Can we assume the bottom has been hit? That from now on stocks will naturally be attracted to magnetic North? Of course not.
But we can take some solace in the realization that the doomsayers out there, and there are so very many who make their living predicting America’s economic demise, at least for now have to admit that our economy still has plenty of resiliency to it and that the biblical financial end is not near.
Also, take note that the THF Composite is down just one percent year-to-date. — TVG
HIRI Conference Speakers Predict Tough Times
4.4.08 The general tone of the Home Improvement Research Institute’s (HIRI) 2008 Spring Conference, held yesterday in Washington, D.C., was somber with most presenters predicting a continuation of a slow market for housing and the home improvement industry.
James Gillula, Managing Director of Advisory Services for Global Insight, Inc. said the housing market has not yet hit bottom and that the housing decline will be an even larger drag on the economy in 2008 than in 2007. He said home improvement product sales will decline 1.5 percent in 2008 after a 2.0 percent decline in 2007, but will gain 2.9 percent in 2009.
Steven Wieting, Managing Director Citi Economic and Market Analysis, spoke on the impact of the credit and housing markets on the home improvement industry. Historically, he said, the direction of home improvement sales have lagged housing turnover by six months. As credit markets tighten, he said, refinancing becomes difficult and mortgage foreclosures begin to rise, impacting disposable income and sales at home improvement retailers.
Bernard Marksyein, Vice President Forecasting and Analysis, National Association of Home Builders, was more optimistic than other presenters. He said the country is in a “mild recession,” if any, and that the downturn will be short-lived. He forecasts a modest rebound in residential construction activity in the second half of 2008 and a steady improvement in housing sales during 2009.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 3/24/08 3/31/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 69.53 66.10 -3.43 -5%
Builders’ First 7.22 7.46 7.26 -.20 +1%
BMHC 5.53 4.44 4.38 -.06 -21%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.56 4.61 +.05 -20%
Danaher 87.74 77.39 76.03 -1.36 -13%
Fastenal 40.42 46.70 45.93 -.77 +14%
Fortune Brand 72.36 67.31 69.50 +2.19 -4%
General Elec. 37.07 37.40 37.01 -.39 -0%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.17 2.32 +.15 -34%
Home Depot 26.94 29.26 27.97 -1.29 +4%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 43.99 44.58 +.59 -4%
Lumber Liq 8.99 10.48 10.60 +.12 +18%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.29 22.94 -1.35 +1%
L-Pacific 13.68 9.17 9.18 +.01 -33%
Masco 21.61 20.50 19.83 -.67 -8%
Makita 41.89 31.75 31.36 -.39 -25%
Newell Rub 25.88 23.36 22.87 -.49 -12%
Sears Holding 102.05 111.59 102.09 -9.50 +0%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 52.87 51.04 -1.83 -12%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 34.28 32.42 -1.86 -13%
Snap-On 48.24 49.91 50.85 +.94 +5%
Stanley 48.48 49.80 47.62 -2.18 -2%
Target 50.00 53.64 50.68 -2.96 +1%
Tractor Sup 35.94 41.98 39.52 -2.46 +10%
Toro 54.44 42.78 41.39 -1.39 -24%
US Home Sys 5.36 4.16 3.63 -.53 -32%
WD-40 37.97 33.59 33.25 -.34 -12%
Wal-Mart 47.53 53.63 52.68 -.95 +11%
THF Comp. 1063 1038 1008 -30 -5%
DJIA 13265 12549 12263 -286 -8%
NASDAQ 2652 2327 2279 -48 -14%
The markets retreated slightly last week, giving back a good chunk of the prior week’s hefty gains. The only good thing that can be said about this “up and down” market is that at least it is not a “down and down” market.
I wouldn’t look for any steady improvement in stocks until the fourth quarter. However, there are some positive signs for our industry. Home Depot and Lowe’s, for example, are both in positive territory for the year. And Tractor Supply is up an impressive 10 percent. That means forward-looking investors see growth potential in home improvement retailers. And if the retailers flourish, so do the manufacturers and distributors who supply them. — TVG
Retailing in Poland Report Available
3.28.08 Research and Markets has announced the addition of Euromonitor International's new report: Retailing in Poland to their offerings.
“Our Retailing in Poland report offers insight into key trends and developments driving the industry. The report examines all retail channels to provide sector insight. Channels include hypermarkets, supermarkets, discounters, convenience stores, mixed retailers, health and beauty retailers, clothing and footwear retailers, furniture and furnishing stores, DIY and hardware stores, durable goods retailers, leisure and personal goods retailers. There are profiles of leading retailers, with analysis of their performance and the challenges they face.
For more information:
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c86833
U.S. Leaps Over Europe As a Cost-Effective Business Location
3.28.08 “All of the developed countries have lost ground relative to the United States in terms of business operating costs, due to the dramatic weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, it is the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom that have seen the greatest increases in costs relative to the U.S.,” according to KPMG's 2008 Competitive Alternatives study that compares business costs in 136 cities in 10 countries in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.
“In Europe, the U.K. has benefited somewhat at the expense of continental Europe from the stronger appreciation that the Euro has seen relative to the Pound. France has the lowest cost structure of the European countries, with costs only 3.6 percent above the U.S. benchmark. Canada and Australia, which in previous years had benefited from a much higher U.S. dollar, now rank second and fourth globally, with business costs essentially equivalent to the U.S.”
The full press release is here.
GDP, Consumer Spending Increased in Fourth Quarter
3.27.08 The Commerce Department's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, released this morning, shows the economy grew at a 0.6 percent annual pace in the final quarter of 2007. That figure is unchanged from last month’s estimate. The report also shows consumers increased spending at a 2.3 percent pace.
The full report is here.
Canadian Retail Sales Up
3.25.08 Canada's retail sales kicked off the year with the biggest monthly gain since May 2007 as consumer spending rose across the board, according to data released today.
January's sales jumped 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted C$35.75 billion (US$35.12 billion) from the previous month's 0.8 percent gain.
"The exceptional weather fluctuations in December and January, the one percentage point reduction in the goods and services tax, and practices regarding the use of gift cards seem to have launched 2008 off to a good start for many retailers," StatsCan said.
All retail sectors posted gains, led by building and outdoor home supplies stores with sales up 3.2 percent to C$ 2.28 billion, the biggest monthly gain since May 2007. Sales at specialized building materials and garden stores increased 7 percent and home centers and hardware store sales were up 2.3 percent.
The full statistical report is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 3/17/08 3/24/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 62.47 69.53 +7.06 -0%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.72 7.46 +.74 +3%
BMHC 5.53 3.86 4.44 +.58 -20%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.03 4.56 +.53 -21%
Danaher 87.74 72.37 77.39 +5.02 -12%
Fastenal 40.42 41.86 46.70 4.84 +16%
Fortune Brand 72.36 63.43 67.31 +3.88 -7%
General Elec. 37.07 34.33 37.40 +3.07 +1%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.34 2.17 -.17 -38%
Home Depot 26.94 25.70 29.26 +3.56 +9%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 43.00 43.99 +.99 -5%
Lumber Liq 8.99 9.31 10.48 +1.17 +17%
Lowe’s 22.62 20.53 24.29 +3.76 +7%
L-Pacific 13.68 8.94 9.17 +.23 -33%
Masco 21.61 18.48 20.50 +2.02 -5%
Makita 41.89 31.48 31.75 +.27 -24%
Newell Rub 25.88 22.00 23.36 +1.36 -10%
Sears Holding 102.05 95.27 111.59 +16.32 +9%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 51.03 52.87 +1.84 -9%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 32.75 34.28 +1.53 -8%
Snap-On 48.24 46.65 49.91 +3.26 +3%
Stanley 48.48 46.69 49.80 +3.11 +3%
Target 50.00 48.50 53.64 +5.14 +7%
Tractor Sup 35.94 37.55 41.98 +4.43 +17%
Toro 54.44 41.02 42.78 +1.76 -21%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.13 4.16 +1.03 -22%
WD-40 37.97 31.19 33.59 +2.40 -12%
Wal-Mart 47.53 49.95 53.63 +3.68 +13%
THF Comp. 1063 955 1038 +83 -2%
DJIA 13265 11972 12549 +577 -5%
NASDAQ 2652 2177 2327 +150 -12%
A few more weeks like this past week and the market will be back to “normal.”
Investors seem to have found some confidence, based on government monetary actions, that the mortgage/housing crisis has hit bottom and that the worst is behind us. As we have seen in the recent past, things can change quickly and dramatically on Wall Street, but for now stocks are headed in the right direction.
What we most desperately need for our industry to grow in sales and profitability is for housing turnover to pickup and return to levels that will inspire increased spending by both consumers and builders. I think we will see that happen in the fourth quarter of this year. — TVG
Report on Hand Tools
3.24.08 The U.S. market for hand tools is growing rapidly, fueled by favorable trends in household remodeling and renovation, do-it-yourself construction projects, and an increasing consumer desire for products that are ergonomically designed and convenient to use, according to a new research report available from SBI.
“Major hand tools marketers continue to heed consumer demand by releasing new products that appeal to users of hand tools for a wide array of construction applications, including gripping and driving, and cutting and edging. Meanwhile, big box retailers report strong sales of popular brand hand tools and they continue to align themselves with leading hand tools manufacturers,” according to the report.
This 2nd edition report analyzes the trends in the U.S. hand tools market, including consumer purchases, distribution channels, end-users and the competitive environment. The report estimates current revenues of the market and its future growth potential. It profiles past, present, and projected sales of hand tools on a product-by-product basis. The report also profiles major marketers, along with manufacturer and retailer strategies used to maximize growth and profitability.
Ordering information is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 3/10/08 3/17/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 62.19 62.47 +.28 -10%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.42 6.72 +.30 -7%
BMHC 5.53 3.81 3.86 +.05 -30%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.20 4.03 -.17 -30%
Danaher 87.74 70.24 72.37 +.13 -18%
Fastenal 40.42 37.70 41.86 +4.16 +4%
Fortune Brand 72.36 63.51 63.43 -.08 -12%
General Elec. 37.07 31.75 34.33 +2.58 -7%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 2.51 2.34 -.17 -33%
Home Depot 26.94 25.00 25.70 +.70 -5%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 41.22 43.00 +.78 -7%
Lumber Liq 8.99 7.79 9.31 +1.52 +4%
Lowe’s 22.62 21.64 20.53 -1.11 -9%
L-Pacific 13.68 9.75 8.94 -.81 -35%
Masco 21.61 18.25 18.48 +.23 -14%
Makita 41.89 35.11 31.48 -3.63 -25%
Newell Rub 25.88 22.12 22.00 -.12 -15%
Sears Holding 102.05 91.00 95.27 +4.27 -7%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 50.54 51.03 +.49 -12%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 32.47 32.75 +.28 -12%
Snap-On 48.24 47.31 46.65 -.66 -3%
Stanley 48.48 46.09 46.69 +.60 -4%
Target 50.00 51.23 48.50 -2.73 -3%
Tractor Sup 35.94 35.57 37.55 +1.98 +4%
Toro 54.44 44.94 41.02 -3.92 -25%
US Home Sys 5.36 3.21 3.13 -.08 -42%
WD-40 37.97 29.54 31.19 +1.65 -18%
Wal-Mart 47.53 48.92 49.95 +1.03 +5%
THF Comp. 1063 944 955 +11 -10%
DJIA 13265 11740 11972 +232 -10%
NASDAQ 2652 2169 2177 +8 -18%
The market continues to fluctuate wildly, not just week-to-week but hour-by-hour. Stability and anything approaching predictability seem still a long way off. But at least stocks did gain in the latest week. That is something to be noted with, if not wild enthusiasm, at least a relatively guarded sense of gratitude.
As I watch and listen to the Democratic presidential candidates trying to cash-in on this situation, I can’t help but chuckle at the logic they are expecting voters to accept: the financial problems have been caused by big government’s failure to react quickly enough to the danger signs, so what we need is more and bigger government.
Home Improvement Retail Sales Down 1% in February
3.14.08 Total sales of home improvement products through retail stores in the U.S. fell just 0.7 percent in February to $22.624 billion from $22.997 billion in January, according to the latest report of Advance Monthly Sales from the Department of Commerce released yesterday. Sales for the month of February were down 4.2 percent from February 2007 levels.
Sales of all types of products and services at retail establishments declined 0.6 percent in February from January to $380.2 billion, but are up 2.6 percent from February 2007 levels.
The full report from DoC is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 2/25/08 3/3/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 69.52 69.11 -.41 -1%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.52 6.41 -.11 -11%
BMHC 5.53 6.23 5.31 -.92 -13%
Cent Garden 5.76 5.77 4.99 -.78 -13%
Danaher 87.74 75.68 74.15 -.53 -15%
Fastenal 40.42 42.90 40.69 -2.21 +1%
Fortune Brand 72.36 66.79 65.40 -1.39 -10%
General Elec. 37.07 34.21 33.42 -.79 -10%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 3.10 2.98 -.12 -15%
Home Depot 26.94 28.82 27.09 -1.73 +1%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 40.39 42.67 +2.28 -8%
Lumber Liq 8.99 10.15 8.81 -1.34 -2%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.50 24.33 -.17 +8%
L-Pacific 13.68 11.93 10.84 -1.09 -21%
Masco 21.61 19.60 18.94 -.66 -12%
Makita 41.89 38.22 35.47 -2.75 -15%
Newell Rub 25.88 23.77 23.21 -.56 -10%
Sears Holding 102.05 99.08 96.47 -2.61 -5%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 55.26 52.45 -2.81 -10%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 37.87 35.30 -2.57 -6%
Snap-On 48.24 52.12 49.81 -2.31 +3%
Stanley 48.48 50.73 48.60 -2.13 +0%
Target 50.00 53.25 52.89 -.36 +6%
Tractor Sup 35.94 39.68 38.19 -1.49 +6%
Toro 54.44 50.82 49.03 -1.79 -10%
US Home Sys 5.36 5.06 3.68 -1.38 -31%
WD-40 37.97 32.84 30.01 -2.83 -21%
Wal-Mart 47.53 50.33 49.90 -.44 +5%
THF Comp. 1063 1035 1000 -35 -6%
DJIA 13265 12570 12259 -311 -8%
NASDAQ 2652 2327 2259 -68 -15%
In the general category of “told you so,” remember that I told you last week when the market shot up a bit that it would most likely retreat this week. Unfortunately that has become a very predictable pattern.
This past week, 27 of the 28 stocks in the THF Composite declined. Only Ingersoll Rand managed a gain, and that is for reasons having very little to do with its home improvement industry product offerings.
With new home sales at levels 34 percent below year-ago numbers, we really can’t expect a significant rebound in home improvement product sales any time in the near future. However, ours is a resilient industry and we will ride this out.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 2/11/08 2/18/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 68.75 68.16 -.59 -2%
Builders’ First 7.22 7.19 6.57 -.62 -9%
BMHC 5.53 6.36 6.09 -.27 +10%
Cent Garden 5.76 5.19 5.48 +.29 -5%
Danaher 87.74 73.50 75.10 +1.60 -14%
Fastenal 40.42 42.03 41.03 -1.00 +2%
Fortune Brand 72.36 65.04 64.60 -.44 -11%
General Elec. 37.07 34.01 34.37 +.36 -7%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 3.52 3.34 -.18 -4%
Home Depot 26.94 28.69 27.52 -1.17 +2%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 37.42 39.31 -1.89 -15%
Lumber Liq 8.99 9.27 9.58 +.31 +7%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.27 23.33 -.94 +3%
L-Pacific 13.68 13.13 11.70 -1.43 -14%
Masco 21.61 21.76 19.15 -2.61 -11%
Makita 41.89 34.30 36.94 +2.64 -12%
Newell Rub 25.88 22.60 22.72 +.12 -12%
Sears Holding 102.05 101.07 98.75 -2.32 -3%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 54.96 53.83 -1.13 -7%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 38.04 38.42 +.38 +3%
Snap-On 48.24 50.00 50.52 +.52 +5%
Stanley 48.48 49.75 49.41 -.34 +2%
Target 50.00 54.19 53.07 -1.12 +6%
Tractor Sup 35.94 41.44 39.73 -1.71 +11%
Toro 54.44 47.56 47.16 -.40 -13%
US Home Sys 5.36 5.43 5.02 -.41 -6%
WD-40 37.97 33.08 32.99 -.09 -13%
Wal-Mart 47.53 49.60 49.44 -.16 +4%
THF Comp. 1063 1022 1013 -9 -5%
DJIA 13265 12240 12348 +108 -7%
NASDAQ 2652 2320 2322 +2 -12%
The markets took a break to observe Presidents’ Day on Monday. Let’s hope they took the time to rejuvenate and renew their sense of optimism in the future of American business and industry.
The home improvement industry stocks we track are actually outperforming both the Dow and the Nasdaq for the year. The THF Composite is down just 5 percent, while the Dow and Nasdaq are down 7 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
One of our retailers doing very well for the year is Tractor Supply Company at +11%, even after it lost $1.71 in the most recent week.
Retailers Praise Stimulus Bill
2.14.08 The National Retail Federation, in a press release, welcomed yesterday’s signing of economic stimulus legislation by President Bush, and praised Congress and the Administration for moving quickly on the issue:
"It was less than a month ago that President Bush urged congressional leaders to set aside partisan differences and work together to help the U.S. economy and American families," NRF Senior Vice President for Government Relations Steve Pfister said. "To see a bill signed into law this soon is almost unprecedented. This fast action shows the urgency of this issue and the commitment the White House and the leaders of both parties in the House and Senate were willing to make to give our economy the shot in the arm it so badly needs."
"This is a simple, targeted stimulus that will quickly put money into consumers' pockets where it can boost growth by creating demand through all sectors of the economy," Pfister said. "Quick action by Congress means the Treasury Department will be able to get tax rebate checks into the hands of consumers in time to have the maximum effect. Timeliness is essential, and we agree with economists who say the fastest way for stimulus to enter the economy is through the consumer."
The $152 billion measure would provide tax rebate checks of up to $600 per working individual and $1,200 per married couple, plus $300 per child for families with children and new tax incentives for job-creating business investments.
Home Improvement Retail Sales Fell 1.7% in January
2.13.08 Home improvement retail sales in January declined 1.7 percent from December to $28.213 billion, according to data released this morning by the Department of Commerce. Sales are down 4.8 percent from year-ago levels.
Total retail sales in the country increased 0.3 percent from December and are up 3.9 percent from year-ago levels.
The full report from DoC is here.
\INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 2/4/08 2/11/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 72.71 68.75 -3.96 -1%
Builders’ First 7.22 7.97 7.19 -.78 -0%
BMHC 5.53 6.97 6.36 -.61 +15%
Cent Garden 5.76 6.20 5.19 -1.01 -10%
Danaher 87.74 75.44 73.50 -1.94 -16%
Fastenal 40.42 41.00 42.03 +1.03 +4%
Fortune Brand 72.36 67.69 65.04 -2.65 -10%
General Elec. 37.07 35.37 34.01 -1.36 -8%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 3.92 3.52 -.40 +1%
Home Depot 26.94 29.35 28.69 -.66 +7%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 39.19 37.42 -1.77 -19%
Lumber Liq 8.99 9.50 9.27 -.23 +3%
Lowe’s 22.62 24.78 24.27 -.51 +7%
L-Pacific 13.68 14.01 13.13 -.88 -4%
Masco 21.61 22.15 21.76 -.39 +1%
Makita 41.89 39.16 34.30 -4.86 -18%
Newell Rub 25.88 23.23 22.60 -.63 -13%
Sears Holding 102.05 105.90 101.07 -4.83 -1%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 56.16 54.96 -1.20 -5%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 38.89 38.04 -.85 +2%
Snap-On 48.24 51.22 50.00 -1.22 +4%
Stanley 48.48 50.58 49.75 -.83 +3%
Target 50.00 54.05 54.19 +.14 +8%
Tractor Sup 35.94 38.97 41.44 +2.47 +15%
Toro 54.44 48.82 47.56 -.96 -13%
US Home Sys 5.36 5.67 5.43 -.24 +1%
WD-40 37.97 34.16 33.08 -1.08 -13%
Wal-Mart 47.53 50.07 49.60 -.47 +4%
THF Comp. 1063 1053 1022 -31 -4%
DJIA 13265 12635 12240 -395 -8%
NASDAQ 2652 2383 2320 -63 -13%
Only three of the 28 stocks in the THF Composite managed to gain for the week as the markets continued to struggle.
On the brighter side, home improvement industry stocks are only down four percent for the year while the Dow is down eight percent and the Nasdaq is down 13 percent. Unfortunately, this is probably more a reflection of how much more our stocks were punished last year than it is of any perceived strength in the sector.
The bears have control of the trading floors at the moment, but the bulls, in my opinion, are sharpening their horns for an attack.
New U.K. Housewares Report
2.7.08 Research and Markets has announced the availability of a report on the housewares and home furnishings market in the United Kingdom. “Our Housewares and Home Furnishings in United Kingdom report offers a comprehensive guide to the size and shape of the market at a national level. It provides the latest retail sales data (2001-2006), allowing you to identify the sectors driving growth. It identifies the leading companies and offers strategic analysis of key factors influencing the market. Forecasts to 2011 illustrate how the market is set to change,” according to a press release.
More information is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 1/28/08 2/4/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 69.88 72.71 +2.83 +4%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.66 7.97 +1.31 +10%
BMHC 5.53 5.98 6.97 +.99 +26%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.85 6.20 +1.35 +8%
Danaher 87.74 74.51 75.44 +.93 -14%
Fastenal 40.42 40.08 41.00 +.92 +1%
Fortune Brand 72.36 66.99 67.69 +.70 -6%
General Elec. 37.07 34.72 35.37 +.65 -5%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 4.10 3.92 -.18 +12%
Home Depot 26.94 29.14 29.35 +.21 +9%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 39.08 39.19 +.11 -16%
Lumber Liq 8.99 7.65 9.50 +1.85 +6%
Lowe’s 22.62 25.40 24.78 -.62 +10%
L-Pacific 13.68 14.96 14.01 -.95 +2%
Masco 21.61 21.52 22.15 +.63 +3%
Makita 41.89 35.78 39.16 +3.38 -7%
Newell Rub 25.88 24.89 23.23 -1.66 -10%
Sears Holding 102.05 100.28 105.90 +5.62 +4%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 57.39 56.16 -1.23 -3%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 34.15 38.89 +4.74 +4%
Snap-On 48.24 42.22 51.22 +9.00 +6%
Stanley 48.48 48.91 50.58 +1.67 +4%
Target 50.00 53.47 54.05 +.58 +8%
Tractor Sup 35.94 34.04 38.97 +4.93 +8%
Toro 54.44 48.79 48.82 +.03 -10%
US Home Sys 5.36 5.30 5.67 +.37 +6%
WD-40 37.97 34.47 34.16 -.31 -10%
Wal-Mart 47.53 48.71 50.07 +1.36 +5%
THF Comp. 1063 1014 1053 +39 -2%
DJIA 13265 12384 12635 +251 -5%
NASDAQ 2652 2350 2383 +33 -10%
Even with the Dow’s 108-point drop on Monday, the THF Composite gained 39 points on our weekly Tuesday – Monday track. These are tumultuous times on the market, to say the least. Stocks seem to be perched precariously on a precipice of impending doom. Or maybe that notion is born of the never-ending litany of negative news emanating from the talking heads on TV.
No one knows the future. But if history is to be trusted as a teacher, we can be sure that things will not get as bad as the pessimists predict, nor will they be as good as the politicians currently running for president are promising.
January Manufacturing ISM PMI at 50.7%
2.4.08 Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January, while the overall economy grew for the 75th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.
Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said: "The manufacturing sector gained momentum in January as the PMI rose 2.3 percentage points, signaling stronger performance in January when compared to the seasonally adjusted 48.4 percent recorded in December. This represents a return to the recent trend of slow growth in manufacturing, as the PMI has averaged 50.2 percent for the past six months. The PMI was driven by the Production Index, which made a rebound of 6.6 percentage points during the month, while the New Orders Index reflected a slight decline at 49.5 percent."
The full report is here.
GDP Slowed in 2007 4Q
1.30.08 Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to advance estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The fourth-quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 28, 2008.
The full report is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 1/21/08 1/28/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 65.75 69.88 +4.13 +0%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.00 6.66 +.66 -8%
BMHC 5.53 4.56 5.98 +1.42 +8%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.43 4.85 +.42 -16%
Danaher 87.74 76.97 74.51 -2.46 -15%
Fastenal 40.42 33.61 40.08 +6.47 -1%
Fortune Brand 72.36 65.81 66.99 +1.18 -7%
General Elec. 37.07 34.31 34.72 +.41 -6%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 3.81 4.10 +.29 +17%
Home Depot 26.94 26.28 29.14 +2.86 +8%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 37.14 39.08 +1.94 -16%
Lumber Liq 8.99 6.07 7.65 +1.58 -15%
Lowe’s 22.62 22.19 25.40 +3.21 +12%
L-Pacific 13.68 13.58 14.96 +1.38 +9%
Masco 21.61 18.85 21.52 +2.67 -0%
Makita 41.89 36.67 35.78 -.89 -15%
Newell Rub 25.88 22.83 24.89 +2.06 -4%
Sears Holding 102.05 89.43 100.28 +10.85 -2%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 53.25 57.39 +4.14 -1%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 32.00 34.15 +2.15 -9%
Snap-On 48.24 39.78 42.22 +2.44 -13%
Stanley 48.48 46.63 48.91 +2.28 +1%
Target 50.00 50.10 53.47 +3.37 +7%
Tractor Sup 35.94 29.49 34.04 +4.55 -5%
Toro 54.44 43.01 48.79 +5.78 -10%
US Home Sys 5.36 5.48 5.30 -.18 -1%
WD-40 37.97 32.00 34.47 +2.47 -9%
Wal-Mart 47.53 47.58 48.71 +1.13 +2%
THF Comp. 1063 948 1014 +66 -5%
DJIA 13265 12099 12384 +285 -7%
NASDAQ 2652 2340 2350 +10 -11%
Last week’s dramatic three-quarters of a point cut of the federal funds rate had the desired effect on the stock market last week. Especially on the THF Composite stocks, where 25 of our 28 stocks gained.
The Fed meets again this week and is widely expected to lower rates even further so as to facilitate a bolstering of economic confidence.
Canadian Retail Sales +6.7%
1.23.08 Retail sales in Canada increased 0.7 percent in November to C$34.8 billion (U.S. $33.8 billion), according to data just released by Statistics Canada. Overall retail sales in the country have risen 6.7 percent from year-ago levels.
In the home improvement retailing sector, sales declined 2.4 percent in November to C$2.09 billion, but are up 1.6 percent over year-ago levels.
The full report from StatCan is here.
INDUSTRY STOCKS
The Weekly Review
Through Monday’s Market Close
Company 2007 1/14/08 1/21/08 1-week YTD
B&Decker 69.65 65.72 65.75 +.03 -6%
Builders’ First 7.22 6.28 6.00 -.28 -17%
BMHC 5.53 5.12 4.56 -.56 -18%
Cent Garden 5.76 4.72 4.43 -.29 -23%
Danaher 87.74 79.81 76.97 -2.84 -12%
Fastenal 40.42 36.08 33.61 -2.47 -17%
Fortune Brand 72.36 68.12 65.81 -2.31 -9%
General Elec. 37.07 35.46 34.31 -1.15 -7%
Huttig Bldg 3.49 4.10 3.81 -.29 +9%
Home Depot 26.94 25.39 26.28 +.89 -2%
Ingersoll Rnd 46.47 41.40 37.14 +4.26 -20%
Lumber Liq 8.99 7.42 6.07 -1.35 -32%
Lowe’s 22.62 20.84 22.19 +1.35 -2%
L-Pacific 13.68 13.30 13.58 +.28 -1%
Masco 21.61 19.80 18.85 -.95 -13%
Makita 41.89 37.20 36.67 -.53 -12%
Newell Rub 25.88 23.31 22.83 -.48 -12%
Sears Holding 102.05 91.38 89.43 -1.95 -12%
Sherwin-Wms 58.04 55.46 53.25 -2.21 -8%
Scotts M-Gro 37.42 34.03 32.00 -2.03 -14%
Snap-On 48.24 42.77 39.78 -2.99 -18%
Stanley 48.48 46.60 46.63 +.03 -4%
Target 50.00 50.49 50.10 -.39 +0%
Tractor Sup 35.94 31.28 29.49 -1.79 -18%
Toro 54.44 46.83 43.01 -3.82 -21%
US Home Sys 5.36 5.42 5.48 +.06 +2%
WD-40 37.97 32.65 32.00 -.65 -16%
Wal-Mart 47.53 47.67 47.58 -.09 +0%
THF Comp. 1063 979 948 -31 -11%
DJIA 13265